Hotel

Positive trading forecast for 2019 despite a slow start to the year; this is supported by the sustained growth in overseas visitor numbers (up 5% year on year at the end of April) and the ongoing decline in unemployment levels at 4.4% for May 2019.

Positive trading forecast for 2019 despite a slow start to the year; this is supported by the sustained growth in overseas visitor numbers (up 5% at the end of April) and the ongoing decline in unemployment levels at 4.4% for May 2019. Slight year on year decline in average RevPAR reported by all regions to the end of May; operators remain optimistic about the summer trade.

• Growing overseas demand – Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures to April 2019 show a 5.1% year on year increase in inbound overseas travel to Ireland (US and EU responsible for the bulk of the increased travel). The USA and EU reported the biggest jump in visitor numbers (a combined 73% of the total 144k increase).
  International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) worldwide increased 6% in 2018 to 1.4 billion as per the World Tourism Organisation.
• Room sales performance – Slow start for the year for all major cities including Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick all reporting a marginal year on year decline in RevPAR to the end of May. The drop has been driven by a decline in accommodation demand (lower occupancy reported across all regions)
• Positive industry sentiment continues to drive hotel refurbishments, extensions and developments across the country. Red Carnation, owners of Ashford Castle, have announced plans for a new 5 star hotel in Dublin.
• Headwinds – Difficulties in sourcing hotel staff particularly in regional locations has pushed hotels like the Europe and Ashford Castle to look for alternative solutions; (both hotels have recently developed staff accommodation to tackle the issue).
• Hotel development activity – STR now reports c. 5,100 new hotel rooms for Dublin with a confirmed opening date in the pipeline, which represents a growth of c. 25% on current supply by 2021
• Transaction Activity – A number of prominent assets in Dublin have been put on the market this year including the Conrad in Earlsfort Terrace (guide €115m) and the Temple Bar Inn (€45m). The Marker in Dublin 2 has also recently gone on the market (€125m).
• Brexit – Sterling currency fluctuations are negatively impacting on the perceived value for money for the GB market.

Gerardo Larios Rizo – Head of Hospitality

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Email: gerardo.lariosrizo@boi.com
Mobile: 087 795 1253